← Stevenson games store championship
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Stevenson games store championship
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-1-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.5%
avg ELO +6.6 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1311
· range 1311–1311
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1065
Q1 1147
Q3 1363
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Fire Suited | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
